Difference between revisions of "Risks"
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| + | Humans are very poor at judging "relative risk". That is, we have a hard time "internalizing" the information we know is true, regarding how likely a particular event is. | ||
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| + | Newspaper publishers grow wealthy on this principle: they highlight the sensational because they know most people are concerned about dying in some grisly manner. The truth is, however, that we are ''far'' more likely to perish from a heart-attack, cancer or stroke than from any imaginable grisly death. | ||
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=Relative risks of dying= | =Relative risks of dying= | ||
| − | These data are culled from a variety of official sources, and represent the years 2000-2005. | + | These data are culled from a variety of official sources (National Institutes of Health in the US, and National Insurance Institute (Bituach Leumi) in Israel), and represent the years 2000-2005. ''N.B.: today's risk (2008) of death by terrorism in Israel is much lower than it was during the period for which these data were gathered).'' |
| − | == | + | ==The risks== |
{| | {| | ||
| + | |- | ||
| + | ! | ||
| + | !USA | ||
| + | !Israel | ||
|- | |- | ||
!Cause of death | !Cause of death | ||
| − | !Risk per 1M | + | !Risk per 1M per year |
|- | |- | ||
|Heart disease | |Heart disease | ||
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|Traffic | |Traffic | ||
|'''156.1''' | |'''156.1''' | ||
| + | |'''73.0''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Suicide | |Suicide | ||
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|103.6 | |103.6 | ||
|- | |- | ||
| − | | | + | |Murder |
| '''62.8''' | | '''62.8''' | ||
| + | | '''2.3''' | ||
|- | |- | ||
|HIV | |HIV | ||
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|Terrorism | |Terrorism | ||
|2.0 | |2.0 | ||
| + | |31.0 | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Airplane crash | |Airplane crash | ||
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|} | |} | ||
| − | == | + | ==Comparison== |
| − | + | Likelihood of violent death in Israel: '''106.3''', in USA: '''220.9'''. That is to say, one is more than twice as likely to die a violent death in the USA as compared to Israel. This, despite the fact that the so-called "intifada" was at its peak during the years for which the statistics were compiled. | |
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| − | + | In either place, the most common cause of death is disease, not violence. Even there, Israel is better: the average life span is several years longer in Israel than in the US. | |
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| − | + | One is ''thirty times'' more likely to be murdered in the US than in Israel (barring terrorism). One is also twice as likely to die in a traffic accident in the US. Partly that is because the driving age is higher in Israel, and also because (in general) drunken driving is much less common. | |
Latest revision as of 07:24, 7 May 2008
Humans are very poor at judging "relative risk". That is, we have a hard time "internalizing" the information we know is true, regarding how likely a particular event is.
Newspaper publishers grow wealthy on this principle: they highlight the sensational because they know most people are concerned about dying in some grisly manner. The truth is, however, that we are far more likely to perish from a heart-attack, cancer or stroke than from any imaginable grisly death.
Relative risks of dying
These data are culled from a variety of official sources (National Institutes of Health in the US, and National Insurance Institute (Bituach Leumi) in Israel), and represent the years 2000-2005. N.B.: today's risk (2008) of death by terrorism in Israel is much lower than it was during the period for which these data were gathered).
The risks
| USA | Israel | |
|---|---|---|
| Cause of death | Risk per 1M per year | |
| Heart disease | 2409.4 | |
| Cancer | 1940.5 | |
| Stroke | 560.6 | |
| Accidents | 368.9 | |
| Diabetes | 252.6 | |
| Flu | 222.3 | |
| Traffic | 156.1 | 73.0 |
| Suicide | 108.8 | |
| Firearms | 103.6 | |
| Murder | 62.8 | 2.3 |
| HIV | 48.6 | |
| House fire | 9.8 | |
| Other land/sea transport | 6.3 | |
| Terrorism | 2.0 | 31.0 |
| Airplane crash | 0.5 | |
| Dog attack | 0.1 | |
| Shark attack | 0.0 |
Comparison
Likelihood of violent death in Israel: 106.3, in USA: 220.9. That is to say, one is more than twice as likely to die a violent death in the USA as compared to Israel. This, despite the fact that the so-called "intifada" was at its peak during the years for which the statistics were compiled.
In either place, the most common cause of death is disease, not violence. Even there, Israel is better: the average life span is several years longer in Israel than in the US.
One is thirty times more likely to be murdered in the US than in Israel (barring terrorism). One is also twice as likely to die in a traffic accident in the US. Partly that is because the driving age is higher in Israel, and also because (in general) drunken driving is much less common.