Difference between revisions of "Risks"
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| + | Humans are very poor at judging "relative risk". That is, we have a hard time "internalizing" the information we know is true, regarding how likely a particular event is. | ||
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| + | Newspaper publishers grow wealthy on this principle: they highlight the sensational because they know most people are concerned about dying in some grisly manner. The truth is, however, that we are ''far'' more likely to perish from a heart-attack, cancer or stroke than from any imaginable grisly death. | ||
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=Relative risks of dying= | =Relative risks of dying= | ||
These data are culled from a variety of official sources (National Institutes of Health in the US, and National Insurance Institute (Bituach Leumi) in Israel), and represent the years 2000-2005. | These data are culled from a variety of official sources (National Institutes of Health in the US, and National Insurance Institute (Bituach Leumi) in Israel), and represent the years 2000-2005. | ||
Revision as of 13:42, 25 January 2008
Humans are very poor at judging "relative risk". That is, we have a hard time "internalizing" the information we know is true, regarding how likely a particular event is.
Newspaper publishers grow wealthy on this principle: they highlight the sensational because they know most people are concerned about dying in some grisly manner. The truth is, however, that we are far more likely to perish from a heart-attack, cancer or stroke than from any imaginable grisly death.
Relative risks of dying
These data are culled from a variety of official sources (National Institutes of Health in the US, and National Insurance Institute (Bituach Leumi) in Israel), and represent the years 2000-2005.
USA
| Cause of death | Risk per 1M |
|---|---|
| Heart disease | 2409.4 |
| Cancer | 1940.5 |
| Stroke | 560.6 |
| Accidents | 368.9 |
| Diabetes | 252.6 |
| Flu | 222.3 |
| Traffic | 156.1 |
| Suicide | 108.8 |
| Firearms | 103.6 |
| Murder | 62.8 |
| HIV | 48.6 |
| House fire | 9.8 |
| Other land/sea transport | 6.3 |
| Terrorism | 2.0 |
| Airplane crash | 0.5 |
| Dog attack | 0.1 |
| Shark attack | 0.0 |
Israel
| Cause of death | Risk per 1M |
|---|---|
| Terrorism | 31.0 |
| Traffic | 73.0 |
| Murder | 2.3 |
Comparison
Likelihood of violent death in Israel: 106.3, in USA: 220.9. That is to say, one is more than twice as likely to die a violent death in the USA as compared to Israel.
In either place, the most common cause of death is disease, not violence.