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Blog/February 2010/Feb 19th

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Feb 19th (See this week's devar torah)
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Hi again!

Wow! It was really a hot week -- in the 20s C (upper 70s to low 80s F) - and I took a lot of heat (so to speak) this week over my (intended to be humorous) comment on global warming. Why are AGW enthusiasts so lacking in humor? I'll address this more seriously below (not the lack of humor, but AGW -- which I had not intended to address at all). It's going to be a long blog, I hope you're patient ...

Sarah was accepted to one of the programs she applied for (caring for the elderly in the Tel Aviv area), so that takes a load off her mind -- and off ours! She also interviewed at another program (helping English speaking immigrants) in a small village called Hashmonaim. I've been frighteningly busy at work, so after I get home I have no energy left. Esther has been trying to work, but has been having problems connecting remotely to her office. And Daniela has been bravely trying to finish papers she's writing. Chaucer, yeah.

In preparation for our annual "Oscars" night event, we watched Avatar among others. Here are our thoughts (and I do speak for all of us on this one):

The movie is not original nor even derivative: it's a direct rip-off of "Dances With Wolves" and "Pocahontas", but set in space and with blue aliens. That wouldn't have been so terrible if the special effects had been "wow" mind-blowing. But for the half a BILLION dollar budget of this movie, we were extremely disappointed. "The Matrix" was revolutionary. So was "The Terminator" (both one and two, actually). But in Avatar the CGI creatures looked like CGI and the other effects were "ho-hum". I expected much better from Cameron (after all, he did do the Terminator movies...)

The dialog was puke-inducing. Ignore the usual condescending lectures about how the (white) West is horrible and responsible for all the evils of the universe. Every single line and plot point is cliché and ripped-off -- he even has the evil (mostly white, naturally) corporation hire mercenaries headed by a southern cracker "colonel". Seriously.

It's a shame that Cameron didn't turn his vaunted 3D technology on the characters themselves. They were all so lacking in depth that it was impossible to care about them. Sarah and I spent the first five minutes of the movie predicting the entire remainder -- and we were spot-on. Not the worst movie I have ever seen, but it's close. The two contenders for worst movie are "Eraserhead" and "Dune" (curiously, both David Lynch productions. Hmm.) . Anyway, "Avatar" really is that bad. However, some fools were inspired by it this week. Goes to show something I guess. Two thumbs-down, all around!

If you want something with aliens and a social message, but which is actually an enjoyable movie, try District 9. Sarah and I both give it "two thumbs-up". We also managed to watch A Serious Man, which was as quirky as you might expect from the Coen brothers. If you are not Jewish, you would not understand half the movie. If you don't speak Hebrew, you miss out on another chunk. Paints a very stereotypical view of American Jewish life in the 1960s, as seen through the dark lens of the Coens.

Back to the AGW issue. One of my readers said apropos my comment about the Washington snowstorm: "There are people who say that global warming will not be only on average warmer weather, but also more extreme weather". I said that was "junk science" but I didn't explain why. I owe that person (and the rest of you) an explanation of why the AGW is junk science.

First it's important to understand that the average temperature of the Earth fluctuates periodically. The geo-historical record clearly shows that Earth has fluctuated between "ice ages" and "hot houses". These data are backed up a number of ways, not least of all by the fossil record (using radioisotope analysis and other means). Earth's peak average temperature is around 25C (that is MUCH hotter than today's 13-14C). That peak has been the normal temperature of Earth far more often than has our current, relatively cool temperature.

Second, one must understand that these wild temperature variations have taken place at times when there were no humans at all to contribute to the "global warming". No industry, no technology, just the normal -- natural -- fluctuations over which humans had (and have) no control whatsoever.

Third, it is crucial to know the components of Earth's temperature:

  • Solar irradiation (which itself is not constant, but is by far the most important component of the overall temperature profile)
  • Earth's irregular orbit (both the changing distance from the Sun, as well as various eccentricities in the orbit cause the amount of irradiation from the Sun as well as its distribution over the surface of the Earth to vary).
  • Large continental mass at the south pole acting as a "magnet" for glacier formation, thereby permitting us to have "ice ages". This along with the Sun's irradiation and the Earth's orbital irregularities are responsible for almost all of the long-term temperature fluctuations.

In addition:

  • Radioisotope heating of Earth (Iran gets its uranium from the Earth, after all -- nuclear decay heats the planet from the inside out)
  • Greenhouse gases trapping heat (water vapor being by far the most important "greenhouse gas", but carbon dioxide and methane playing a large role as well)
  • Variations in Earth's albedo, for example volcanic eruptions emitting huge quantities of dust into the upper atmosphere where they diminish the solar irradiance

There are, of course, many other contributors to the Earth's temperature, but these are the main ones.

Fourth, know that human contribution to atmospheric carbon-dioxide is, by the most liberal estimates, only 3%. Volcanoes, animal respiration, geologic erosion and other naturally occurring processes account for 97% of all C02 in the atmosphere. Further, it is crucial to point out that C02 levels lag temperature increases, meaning it is not the cause, but an effect. Most important: our current levels of CO2 are much lower (a third or less) than they have been historically. For example, during the Jurassic period C02 was at 1200ppm, now it is around 380ppm -- and during the Cambrian, it was at 7000ppm!

Finally, the plethora of scandals surrounding the climate "scientists" revelations of scientific malfeasance make it very difficult to take anything they say seriously. If we cannot trust their data, how can we trust their conclusions? Before we spend trillions of dollars we don't have, we should be certain that the steps we plan on taking will in fact have the desired effect. From the data I present above, I think it clear that there is very little we can do the modify the Earth's overall climate. The global temperatures might be rising (or falling!) but not because of human activity.

Other things (intended to be humorous, caveat lector!):

This week we've got a couple of seminary girls staying with us. In addition, our good friends' daughter will be dining with us (her parents are out of town this shabbat). On the menu: baked fish, roasted chicken, stir-fried beef, "orange" soup (it's not made from oranges!), marinated eggplant and many other fine things.

Until next week,
Shabbat shalom!



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